Will Brexit affect numismatists?

I was watching the brexit vote and as soon as the result was announced the pound tanked, dropping 8% almost immediately to the lowest it's been against the US dollar since 1985. It's hard to say if it will remain lower or recover, but for now it just got a whole lot cheaper for foreigners to buy from British auctions, conversely it just got more expensive for Brits to buy from anywhere else in the world.

I work in financial markets and I don't think this will matter much for numismatics. The Brits might even decide after a few months that things should be reconsidered, especially if some of the die hard europhiles finally start realising that reality is a bit different to what they had in mind.

As for numismatics, GBP was a bit overvalued compared to northern Euro countries before, and now it's slightly back in line so maybe that part of the world is now more likely to bid along for coins offered in the UK.

Just think of it, 20 years ago a Pound was between 2.5 and 3 Deutschmark, from 8 to 10 DM 40 years before that. Extrapolated it should be around 1.4 DM now, but it's almost 2.5 now. Pounds are still not that cheap even after today. It's not that German exports have stalled the last 20 years.... on the contrary, German currency is way too cheap because of Euro. And here's another disruption that might cause an earthquake in due time.

On another note, I love Britain. Today's vote was the revenge of the lower middle class and the radical liberals. The radical liberals have sound reasons. They will inspire European decision makers to come up with a better plan. If not, the Nordics, Dutch and Gerries are out and form their own Hansa. I hope the French are reading this. Stop striking, face reality, take responsibility, pay your bills and be creative to beat your competitors in business. If not, au revoir.

Sry, bit emotional here

It's going to be an interesting time financially, the vast majority of Britain's exports were to the EU countries, without the free trade that membership in the EU brought, they're going to have to negotiate trade agreements with the EU, it could be a rollercoaster few months for the pound while these things are getting sorted out.

I like how everyone is so sure they will have some deal with EU. I have seen countless analysis how suchh deal would look like, and nobody ever asked cardinal question: Would EU want such a deal?

Answer is no. They would not. Easy going away for Britain (or rather just England) and negotiationg some super extra nice trade deal that would allow them to keep going nicely would encourage other states to secede. EU have no other possibillities than to make it rough for UK. It is sad, but other ways would be political suicide for EU.

Maybe little political, sorry, but it is only a opinion.

I'm definitely going to be watching the pound over the next couple of weeks....might be time to hit ebay.co.uk

I think, in the next few years there will be no real difference.
The pound will go down and up a little bit, but won't crash totally.

More interesting is, what will happen after 2 or 3 years.
Will Scotland remain in the UK?
What happens with Northern Ireland. Nobody wants the violence back. London have to do something, to make the Scotish and the Northern Irish shure that they have a good time with England and Wales. If not, i fear the UK could break in pieces.
Next Question is Gibraltar. They voted far over 90% for remain. They need the EU.

If it comes to agreements similar to Norway, then the Anti-EU-Guys will see, they have won nothing but lost a lot.

In my opinion it is a bad time for Europe. But it es a democratic decision and we have to deal with it.

If Scotland leaves the UK, we hopefully will see Scottish Euro Coins in future. This is the only positive point i see.
I don't think Northern Ireland would leave the UK.

The EU is the only way Europe can emanzipate from the US. The UK did often work against emanzipation from the US. But without the UK the EU is less powerful. I hope, the EU will see the problems now and will change to mor democracy and less Lobbyism. If they going on ignoring the wreath of the European people about that money waste, that Lobbyism and so on, the EU will loose more members. Even in Germany are a lot of people who are saying, Germany is paying thi biggest part and have nothing of it. That is totally stupid, but this part of the German People is growing.

Quote: "neilithic"​It's going to be an interesting time financially, the vast majority of Britain's exports were to the EU countries, without the free trade that membership in the EU brought, they're going to have to negotiate trade agreements with the EU, it could be a rollercoaster few months for the pound while these things are getting sorted out.

​This is a valid point, but I'm guessing that the UK is quite a big export market for the EU members also, an example being German car exports. The EU will hopefully take that into consideration should they decide to play hard ball.

On the whole, the referendum campaign was very negative. There was no information or facts provided outlining the benefits to either option, it became solely focused around immigration and money spent on being an EU member.

Quote: "Handzumgrus" Even in Germany are a lot of people who are saying, Germany is paying thi biggest part and have nothing of it. That is totally stupid, but this part of the German People is growing.

​It is true though is it not?

I am not really sure why the Brits dropped out, but I imagine its best for them. They don't want laws being passed over them from far away.

I believe it will as long as people keep panicking, the pound closed last night higher than it was in February also the stock market finished at a growth on this time last month, it seems to be getting blown out of proportion lets not forget nothing changes for two years anyway.

It will be tougher before it gets better by I fimly believe we're better out. I'm not going into it on here but the people voted out because all of us working (lower middle) class have had everything taken from us, the most recent was the decision to allow the dumping of Chinese steel and the block the EU did to stop the UK Govt bailing out our own steel industries. There are whole communities broken (Again) because of this. We know it won't bring them back but we don't want to see what we have left decimated either.

When the EU implodes Britain will realise it was right. The people who built the British empire didn't get it to where it was without taking a risk.

It one more step to Scottish Euros.......

I see it a bit as a relationship crisis where soneone decides to walk out but after some time starts to have second feelings and returns back home.

The Scots are pushing for independence and the EU now wishes to hurry with the separation process. Brits who feel the Balkanisation of their own island might get second thoughts and I wouldn't be surprised this will eventually lead to Bremain after all. And on a positive note there now is a wake up call that some forms of giving up sovereignity to Brussels is not what the people want.

On the other hand Italy is being flooded with refugees picked up near the Libyan coast. If this goes on new borders will be set up by its neighbours and the whole thing falls apart.

Quote: "jokinen"​I see it a bit as a relationship crisis where soneone decides to walk out but after some time starts to have second feelings and returns back home.
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​The Scots are pushing for independence and the EU now wishes to hurry with the separation process. Brits who feel the Balkanisation of their own island might get second thoughts and I wouldn't be surprised this will eventually lead to Bremain after all. And on a positive note there now is a wake up call that some forms of giving up sovereignity to Brussels is not what the people want.
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​On the other hand Italy is being flooded with refugees picked up near the Libyan coast. If this goes on new borders will be set up by its neighbours and the whole thing falls apart.

​Well put, but please aloud me to add my 2 cents.

First: the EU doesn't need little Britain (with an arrogant ego). It was the 5th wheel afterall. Pity for those who wanted to stay, but it's how democracy works.

Second: EU is heading to a remodelation after the Brexit, a kind of confederation of countries who want co-operate even more within Europe (France, Germany, Belgium, Holland, Luxemburg) and perhaps a confederation of countries who wants less Europe. Do expect a Brit request in time.

We will see what happens when the dust settles down. At this moment I just expect another Elisabeth II Canadian commemorative coin (amoung other commonwealth countries) to commemorate the Brexit.

Quote: "gdrsb"​It one more step to Scottish Euros.......

​Brilliant...the glass is definitely half full for this collector

What will be will be as far as the exit from the EU is concerned. It doesn't matter any more regardless of views on the whole referendum. Classic example of believing a politician. A mistake commonly made over and over without learning they are trying to win something, gift of the gab style.

One thing it has done is split a country in half. There was no clear choice and the percentage necessary to win should have been by a stronger majority vote. It is now clear the leave campaign was extremely exaggerated to the point of retraction after the results. Remain was also guilty of exaggerating as well.

Leaving the EU worries me less than the prospect of British Donald Trump (Boris) in charge of this country with the slimy attention seeking puppet that is Nigel Farrage.

It won't affect me too much Numismatic wise....hopefully......

Quote: "Fluke"​​Leaving the EU worries me less than the prospect of British Donald Trump (Boris) in charge of this country with the slimy attention seeking puppet that is Nigel Farrage.

​My brother posted on one of my facebook posts that the scariest thing is that soon, the two most powerful people in the world could be...

Quote: "neilithic"​​
​​My brother posted on one of my facebook posts that the scariest thing is that soon, the two most powerful people in the world could be...
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​You mean those two brothers? And why the hell they both look like hamsters?

I can't wait for the Liberia / Canadian commemoratives.

I miss terribly the numismatic traditions and beautiful coins of the sovereign nations..

Quote: "Oklahoman"​I miss terribly the numismatic traditions and beautiful coins of the sovereign nations..

​True, specialy for those like me who don't collect euro coins.

I am right there with you.

Silver is up 20% in $ and 28% in £, which will definitely affect numismatics. The uncertainty surrounding Brexit have caused market participants to believe that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner than hike. And with zero interest in paper money the cost of holding precious metal becomes less which increases demand.

Silver up to $20.50 today, 5% up! Maybe it's the illiquid holiday trading session but it's going sky high since Brexit and lower interest rate outlooks

Quote: "pnightingale"​I can't wait for the Liberia / Canadian commemoratives.

​The Cook Islands got there first!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BREXIT-United-Kingdom-Out-European-Union-Silver-Coin-1-Cook-Islands-2016/272291166575?_trksid=p2047675.c100012.m1985&_trkparms=aid%3D222007%26algo%3DSIC.MBE%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D35389%26meid%3Daf68a95c22f54a10a3b570e749235a4e%26pid%3D100012%26rk%3D3%26rkt%3D10%26sd%3D171972773655

Quote: "lbillows"​

Quote: "pnightingale"​I can't wait for the Liberia / Canadian commemoratives.

​​The Cook Islands got there first!
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​Of course they did

They probably already had one ready to go if they had decided to stay as well.