Local coin market tanking

I'm really frustrated at the moment. Our local coin market is really tanking for low and high value coins but the middle value ones are still going strong. There seems to be mostly collectors with a similar mindset to me, where nice looking coins with a decent book value (like $30-$100) sells really well, but anything with catalogue value of a couple of dollars will not sell unless it's in a big bulk lot...and even then it doesn't always sell, and the top level coins worth over $100 don't really sell either.

The funny thing is that there are actually MORE coins for sale, but less selling. When I first started buying, the local auction site had 3,500 lots listed weekly, now there are consistently more than 5,000.

What this means to me personally is that I find it is getting harder and harder to buy the coins I want because there is lots of competition for decent coins, but it's harder for me to offload coins. My usual MO was to buy bulk lots, split them up and re-sell individually or in small country lots, but I can't really make much money on that anymore.

What it means for our hobby is that it seems there are fewer new collectors starting out, these are the people that will traditionally buy the lower catalogue value coins to try and build up a decent starting collection to build on.

Is anyone is other countries noticing a similar pattern?

I'm finding it a little different on UK ebay. (Bear in mind I currently only studiously collect half crowns and SA/ZAR coinage, and a few pennies)

Half crowns:

Bulk lots: Inevitably overpriced

Low end: (1953 onwards) Extremely cheap.

Mid Range: (Post young head not including rare dates in >vf and scarcer dates in bad condition) People don't seem to have a clue about grading or what they are bidding for (or I'm getting it horribly wrong in my mind), so you're either finding lovely half crowns for £5-15, whilst some terrible ones with large rim dinks etc are selling for more. Pot luck, depending on the day and who else wants it.

High end: (UNC+ and scarce dates in >F+) The market is crazy, and regularly beating catalogue values by 20% or so. Extremely difficult to pick up any kind of 'bargain' - To use Sheldon, a MS64 1909 went for over £900 (cat 700), and florins are the same story.

ZAR/SA coinage: Not much of it about in good condition pre 1940ish, but prices wildly fluctuate as dealers oversell and buyers either overpay or don't pay at all. Found it all but impossible to pick up coins lately, so changed my tactics for this one.

It's frustrating, but I'm telling myself to have patience... I find the grading thing the worst, you can't trust them to put the correct grade or details on any coin, so have to make up your mind yourself entirely which makes searching for them harder.

Not sure if I count as a 'new' collector or not, as I've been at it a few months now, or whether it's indicative of a lack of new collectors, or new collectors being from a different demographic.

Well there are different types of new collector. You are an unusual one in that you've just straight in to mid-high range coins. Most new collectors start with the shrapnel that you get in most bulk lots and collect anything and everything until they decide on a focus. Some never change and still collect anything and everything, but most will eventually find it too had to try to get everything and focus on a specialty. When you do that and you've already got all the easy coins, you're really forced into buying the more expensive coins.

Closing in on my first year of serious collecting. As you mentioned Neil, I started with much "shrapnel" in my Canadian cent collection but once I had every date, I am now trying to improve every coin to VF or better.

Ebay was a favourite hang out for a while but now seems to be populated with low end VG's and F's (always marketed as VF's and EF's). Any of the mid-range coins have massive bidding and 99 times out of 100 go for more than NGC or Charlton.

My only success to date is a local online shop auctioning estates and then only foreign coins. They must have a decent coin "expert" as any coins are reasonably sorted into individuals or lots starting at a $5 bid and incrementing at a minimum $5. Any American or Canadian coinage sells for far above NGC or Charlton (I've just given up). But I have picked up a couple of foreign coins which I have flipped on eBay at over 30% of my cost (thanks in large part to Numista).

I guess I have 2 questions......

1. Is this phenomenon a Regional attribute? (Aussie coins over priced in Australia, Canadian coins over priced in Canada)

2. As my expertise (hehe...that's funny) increases, am I "under grading" coins?

Niel, things ebb and flow, ups and downs, and the way people buy and sell changes. It sounds like you just found something that worked really well and for now its not, that's a normal fluctuation. But that doesn't mean that there is not a new way, you just have to change with the market and find the new niche. Don't stop buying those amazing lots you have access to, you just have to find out how to sell again.

Peter, I have found that for a large part its very regional, a given coin will bring the most money in its own country, but online auctions seem to always go above book, I don't understand that. Who are these millions of buyers that are willing to pay so much?

Quote: "Peter M. Graham"​I guess I have 2 questions......
​
​1. Is this phenomenon a Regional attribute? (Aussie coins over priced in Australia, Canadian coins over priced in Canada)
​
​2. As my expertise (hehe...that's funny) increases, am I "under grading" coins?

​New Zealand and Australian coins are generally pretty well priced over here because there are so many of them available and most collectors already have a copy of them. For example.....here's a lot of 150 silver sixpences for NZ$200 (about £90 or US$130) If you get the George V ones in VF they've got a book value of around $8 each

http://www.trademe.co.nz/antiques-collectables/coins/new-zealand-predecimal/sixpence/auction-1095851648.htm

Quote: "Peter M. Graham"​Closing in on my first year of serious collecting. As you mentioned Neil, I started with much "shrapnel" in my Canadian cent collection but once I had every date, I am now trying to improve every coin to VF or better.
​
​Ebay was a favourite hang out for a while but now seems to be populated with low end VG's and F's (always marketed as VF's and EF's). Any of the mid-range coins have massive bidding and 99 times out of 100 go for more than NGC or Charlton.
​
​My only success to date is a local online shop auctioning estates and then only foreign coins. They must have a decent coin "expert" as any coins are reasonably sorted into individuals or lots starting at a $5 bid and incrementing at a minimum $5. Any American or Canadian coinage sells for far above NGC or Charlton (I've just given up). But I have picked up a couple of foreign coins which I have flipped on eBay at over 30% of my cost (thanks in large part to Numista).
​
​I guess I have 2 questions......
​
​1. Is this phenomenon a Regional attribute? (Aussie coins over priced in Australia, Canadian coins over priced in Canada)
​
​2. As my expertise (hehe...that's funny) increases, am I "under grading" coins?

​
I suspect it's a supply and demand thing; in countries like the UK and US, there's a massive collector demand for coins with a rather low mintage due to population booms, whereas in countries like NZ the mintage was relatively low, but the population there (and hence number of collectors) are still relatively low. Then you have countries with emerging demand...

Countries like Brazil and India, and even China are interesting...

Foreign coins will usually sell more cheaply as there's less local demand for them, especally in high grades.

As for question 2, I don't think so. When you look at the big auction houses they grade like we do, it's just the scummy dealers and ebay sellers that overgrade massively.

I don't think it reflects a general downward shift in prices. I really can't imagine prices falling from their depressed level of the past 40 years or so, any lower and we're going to be sharing the misery of philatelists.

It's much more likely that a new crop of collectors have satisfied their curiosity about a wide range of coins and are starting to recognize the importance of condition.

Hopefully the market changes because I don't want to get into constant dog-fights for the coins I want, while at the same time watching low value coins go down the gurgler. It doesn't seem to be just New Zealand, because I recently bid on about 20 auctions of Vatican coins on e-bay. I put a top bid at just above catalogue value on all of them and I was out-bid on every single auction.

Whilst I agree there is a certain amount of regional difference I don't believe it to be the case on eBay. Only in dedicated auction houses or coin websites of that country given the fact no big dealer or auction house is going to sell low grade junk I think that's why the prices might be high there, I find it the same here. I could buy a godless florin in the condition I got mine from the states for around £50 more here.

At at the end of the day once you've decided on what you want and as Phil said realise that condition is everything then you really must start chasing the good coins. I find nearly every coin I go for to be a dog fight. Sometimes you have to bite your lip so to speak and shoe great restraint not too bid. Other times you get caught up and buy it, truth is though even if you do overpay on the coins I chase these days it's ok as they're hard to come by !

I mainly use eBay but in a way that can send you to sleep. I have a bookmark set to show all coin categories and then sit here scrolling through them all and pick out the interesting high grade coins (I came across my high grade Bermuda penny using this method).

If I am hunting a specific coin they are either ridiculous priced buy it now or you have one or two other collectors bidding for it which makes it a dogfight over that one coin, then you get agitated as you ended up paying more than you wanted.

I tend to get big lots to pass the time when hunting for specific coins, it kind of takes the edge off losing out on coins you are hunting. Just like oggy pointed out, it really depends on luck with competition. Some days you get lucky, but usually you will go up against a couple of other determined bidders. I never put in a bid until the very end. I do that simply so other bidders don't realise I am there as competition, knowing there is another bidder makes the fight even harder.

I have a bulk lot of world coins to sell at the moment but just can't be bothered to list them yet, roughly 8kg of them. I have taken out most that are pre 1950 of all grades, not to keep for myself though, just as something to do and then sell on by either dumping them on the top of the lots I will sell on eBay.

It makes me also think that maybe a thread should be opened and everyone either put their eBay name or just the first and last letter/digit. Just so we don't end up facing off with each other and push a coins value needlessly higher than it should be, clicking on number of bids will open a list of bidders first and last letter but **** blanking out the whole ID.

Patience, discipline, and conviction.

I take the same attitude to collecting as I do to margin trading, so this may not be relevant for all, and it may just be info you all already know.

Patience - Unless the coin is really rare (say R5 or more), you will always have a chance to get another within the next year or two. If it's simply scarce, you'll likely have several opportunities.

This applies to retail, auctions, and ebay. If it doesn't fit your criteria, walk away and wait for the next one.

Discipline - Don't be greedy - Just like with any sort of trade, work out the grade of the coin, the value you're willing to pay, and stick to it. It may be 20% below the book value, or 50%, or even 20% above for a particular coin. Now you have the price you're willing to pay.

Now comes conviction; It's not a battle, it's a hunt. You have your price point; if it escapes, you'll bid on the next one. If you get it cheaper at auction, yay, buy some beer or a gift for your girlfriend.

Don't get in a shootout, decide hours and days before the end point.

The problem is that I don't really have a lot of spare time to peruse auctions. With a young family I really can't neglect my two boys and wife by spending all my after-work time looking through auctions. Also being this part of the world, a lot of the e-bay auctions close at ridiculous hours, like 2:00am-3:00am. I usually stick to the local auction sites. However I have found a couple of promising e-bay stores that have "buy it now" listings I might start buying a bit off them.